Posted by Climate Solutions on April 15, 2000
by Patrick Mazza
Mac Moore, as business development director for British Petroleum's solar
division recently said, "My feeling is that we are at the point in time
where the personal computer was in the late '70s. Over the next 10 years, if
things go well, there's going to be a revolutionary change in the way that
we obtain power."
For the United States, whose prosperity is so much tied to technological
leadership, that trend raises major concerns. It has ceded its place at the
head of clean energy industries to Europe and Japan.
A recent Renewable Energy Policy Project report noted, "U.S. policymakers
have chosen to reject strategies designed to commercialize renewable energy
in favor of continued reliance on fossil fuels, especially oil . . .
Europeans have now seized the lead in deploying [renewable energy
technologies]" and Japan has "systematically laid the groundwork for a
possible wide scale deployment of renewable energy."
"The U.S. has played a huge role in the development of efficiency
technologies and renewable applications. But right now European and Japanese
companies are making most of the new investments," Climate Institute
President John Topping says. "The renewable energy industry is potentially
as significant as the electronics and computer industry. If major U.S.
energy companies step aside on this, they are going to play a largely
diminished role in the future."
It is as if it were 1979 and most computer companies were under foreign
ownership. Three of the top 5 solar photovoltaic (PV) producers are
Japanese, and the other 2, while American-managed, are European-owned. Only
one U.S.-owned PV firm makes the top 10.
Much of the situation tracks to public priorities. Japan set a national goal
to install PV on 70,000 roofs. In 1997 its public support program for solar
became the world's largest. In 2000, the Japanese Ministry of International
Trade and Industry plans to spend around $200 million on the program plus
another $300 million to develop PV technology. In response, major Japanese
corporations have scaled up solar production, and are innovating new solar
systems built into roof tiles. Kyocera, Sharp and Sanyo rank among the top 5
PV makers, and Japan ranks first in PV production.
"As with other, earlier, business revolutions," solar advocate Jeremy
Leggett notes, "the Japanese government is wisely using targeted and
time-limited subsidy to help speed the commercial take-off point, and
position Japanese companies at the head of the grid when the market race
begins in earnest."
Germany in 1999 announced an even larger effort, aimed at putting PV on
100,000 roofs. By offering interest-free loans, the government effectively
cut the price of PV installation by 37%. The U.S. has a more ambitious goal,
the Million Solar Roofs program started in 1997. But annual funding is
around $72 million, far lower than in Japan or Germany.
As with solar, so with wind, where the U.S. was once the world's leading
producer of wind turbines and energy. Now Denmark has seized top spot among
turbine builders -- 50% of turbines operating are of Danish origin.
Meanwhile, Germany has become the world's largest wind electricity
generator. In each case, leadership is a product of concerted public efforts
to build up infant wind industries. Ambitious efforts to develop wind power
blanket Europe. Several Spanish provinces are spurring local turbine
manufacturing. Britain and the Netherlands also have active programs.
Such initiatives are in line with the historic development of the energy
industry.
"Today's energy systems did not arise just through the hidden hand of market
forces, though markets have played an important role," the American Council
for an Energy-Efficient Economy and 4 other energy policy groups noted in a
1997 report. "They are as much a product of strategic visions, wherein
private investments melded with government incentives and policies to create
the complex networks and industries that dominate the energy scene."
Helping infant industries overcome early hurdles is the place for
intelligently designed public policies. Many now huge industries grew from
the foundation laid by public investment and guaranteed government markets.
A public hand-up was necessary for transcontinental railroads in the 19th
century and aerospace, electronics, computers and advanced
telecommunications in the 20th. Communications satellites and internet had
their start as public projects.
"In the 1960s, integrated circuits were far too expensive for general uses
that could benefit the public," notes Denis Hayes, Energy Foundation chair
and head of solar energy research in the Carter Administration. "Massive
government purchases, mostly by the Defense Department and NASA, led to
design innovations and efficiencies of mass production. If the government
had not purchased huge quantities of computer chips before they were cheap
enough for commercial applications, the technology might have never become
cost-effective. The same strategy could work for solar cells."
Making public initiatives particularly crucial is the need for rapid
replacement of fossil energy to stabilize the climate. Disruption of the
world's weather patterns is as serious a national and international security
threat as we have faced. Clean energy industries are our frontline defense,
and should receive support commensurate with their crucial role . If the
U.S. does not rise to the challenge, leadership in dealing with this
century's most important issue will go to those who do. Right now that looks
like Europe and Japan.
Patrick Mazza is staff writer-researcher for Climate Solutions. This article
is excerpted from Climate Solutions' upcoming report, Accelerating the Clean
Energy Revolution: How the Northwest Can Lead.
For more information, please contact:
Climate Solutions
(a project of Earth Island Institute)
610 4th Ave. E
Olympia, WA 98501-1113
Phone: (360) 352-1763
Fax: (360) 943-4977
E-mail: rhys@climatesolutions.org
Web: http://www.climatesolutions.org
